Kibaki amejifry mwenyewe!!!
How I wish I could be as sincerely optimistic regarding Hon. Kibaki's politics as some are; I'm afraid I can barely muster some courage for that. My President has a penchant for self-destruction. Like King Lear, he won't know what hit him (politically speaking). Watch that space.
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posted by Kenyananalyst @ 12/08/2005 02:55:00 pm
6 Comments:
Few things to point out, firstly the cabinet is split on partisan lines, then unfortunatly by tribal lines.
Lets look at who kibaki had a chance to work with. He tried Kanu, they refused. That leaves Ford-K and LDP. LDP have outrightly denounced the presi which leaved Ford-K.
As such this was one huge delima. He had to resort to the fringe politicians and mainly loyalists, which is what he has done.
Out of these he needeed to come up with a broad based cabinet that might help out with the tribal factors in Kenya. His choice was again very limited. The entire luo nyanza would not dare 'offend' Raila by joining up with Kibaki. So that rules them all out.
The next big tribe is the Kamba's. At least here he had a chance to pull in a few mp's. Something that he has done.
Next the Kalenjins, he reached out to individuals and luckily got quite a few on his side. Am still not sure if the Meeting with Moi had anything to do with it.
The Maasai's and upper rift guys had to get a mention which he did. That leaves the coastarians. In we saw Shakombo et al. He has a good chance to win the Coast as the leading lights of ODM are only represented by Mr Balala. So the battle is to be won there.
Having condidered all this i think the President has shown his hands and the cards are all on the table.
Do we need a fresh mandate, Well, Sadly, i think Parliament will make sure of it. Parliament is largely anti-govt now. Am not sure about the numbers but i think its safe to assume more than 51% of the parliament are with the ODM dudes.
There's going to be a great need of political manouvering if Kibaki is to survive this.
That Hon. Kibaki is going to have to find a way to save face is no longer in doubt. That he must do it quick is now also certain.
wamweri, your tribal analysis above for the Kibaki govn't was perhaps true yesterday, when he unveilled the cabinet, not so much today. Mind you, he did not rule all the Luo out, he named a few to his cabinet. So far Ojodeh has said NO. Kibaki has lost the Kamba. With Ngilu and Kalonzo out, Kambaland is out. Ford Kenya, mostly a Bukusu stroghold has ditched him. That leaves the govn't in a Kikuyu outfit.
What didn't Kibaki do that he should have done??
Xylem wrote:
What didn't Kibaki do that he should have done??
Atleast talk to ODM and make sure it is highly publicised, but not necessarily appoint them to cabinet. Then maybe the situation would not have reached these level, as some trust would have developed especially amongst the fence sitters who are now ditching him.
Good Luck Emilio..like i said WRONG MOVE
READ MY ANALYSIS AT http://mzalendowakenya.blogspot.com/
True Mzalendo, very true. Sadly, some media reports suggest that our President learns about the country not from the media but from his daily intelligence briefings. You should hope that somehow, in their legendary prowess in their duties, they monitor this site and pass on your concerns. Not a bad bet if you also consider media reports that they did their best to advise him about the looming disaster on Nov. 21 (despite subsequent protests by some government operatives).
www.kenyananalyst.blogspot
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